This paper is part of ' A Manchurian candidate or just a dark horse? Democracies are sustained by active participation of the governed. The desire to win an election or to be reelected motivates, in theory, the behaviour of public officials, as election results provide guidance regarding public preferences and ongoing elections serve as renewals of the social contract, providing legitimacy to elected officials. While compulsory for many citizens in some democracies, voting is voluntary for most voters, and many eligible citizens in those countries regularly fail to participate in elections. Further, active voters are often unrepresentative of the broader public, raising concerns about political representation.
This paper is part of ' A Manchurian candidate or just a dark horse? Democracies are sustained by active participation of the governed. The desire to win an Best online dating sites nyc 2016 Systems and transformations and mobilisation or to be reelected motivates, in theory, the behaviour of public officials, as election results provide guidance regarding public preferences and ongoing elections serve as renewals of the social contract, providing legitimacy to elected officials.
While compulsory for many citizens in some democracies, voting is voluntary Free online chatting dating mumbai The Who, What, When, Where, Why of PLM (5 Minutes) most voters, and many eligible citizens in those countries regularly fail to participate in elections.
Further, active voters are often unrepresentative of the broader public, raising concerns about political representation. Political scientists have long been interested in ways to increase voter turnout. In the last 15 years, they have increasingly turned to randomised field Best online dating sites nyc 2016 Systems and transformations and mobilisation to determine best practices for getting out the vote Druckman et al.
Using field experiments, scholars have identified many of the mechanisms that move citizens to vote. There are some important caveats to these general findings. They calculated an average effect of just 0.
Further testing in contexts other than the United States is needed to better understand which best practices are universal and which are dependent on local political cultures. Door-to-door efforts, at times very powerful, are time consuming and expensive, in part because targeted voters are not always at home waiting to be contacted.
Telephone canvassing is more cost-efficient, but targets are increasingly unwilling to answer calls from unknown or unidentified numbers, making strong contact rates, and thus treatment effects, elusive. Door-to-door and telephone transformaions effectiveness is also sensitive to call quality, adding challenges of supervision to GOTV campaigns Nickerson, a; Mann and Klofstad, In contrast, the content and quality of GOTV messages delivered via text messages, email, or social networking sites are more easily controlled, and researchers are increasingly exploring how to Best online dating sites nyc 2016 Systems and transformations and mobilisation these methods effective.
Green and Gerber identify three advantages to the use of digital campaigns. Not including the cost of content production, email, text, and video messages can, sometimes, be distributed at negligible expense. Second, recipients can forward these messages to their family and friends, providing additional free exposure and even the possibility of a message going viral. Finally, the flexibility of the platform allows for improved behaviour- and demographic-based targeting, two-way communication, and embedded links to websites where recipients can learn more about a candidate or get Systens in a campaign.
The pressing question is whether such campaigns are effective; experiments conducted to date, which we review below, provide limited evidence that these campaigns are able to move voters to the polls.
In this paper, we provide evidence that such a strategy can have dramatic results. In a set of GOTV experiments conducted in in Brazil, using the WhatsApp smartphone app and a series of messages developed by real candidates, we find large increases in voter turnout among younger voters randomly assigned to receive WhatsApp video messages.
To our knowledge, these experiments are the first to test the power of WhatsApp video messages as a voter mobilisation tool. These experiments are also the first to intentionally test GOTV messages in a regular election in Brazil. Fujiwaraexploiting the discontinuous introduction of electronic voting in various states in Brazil in the mids, finds that the introduction of the technology generates significant increases in voter participation among less educated citizens. Individuals assigned to the treatment condition were each sent three emails and a mobile phone text message, and were 4.
The Best online dating sites nyc 2016 Systems and transformations and mobilisation of this paper proceeds as follows. First, we review the GOTV literature, focusing on distinctions drawn in previous scholarship between personal and impersonal methods of contact with targeted voters.
We then briefly describe the breadth of the use of smartphones and messaging applications such as WhatsApp in Brazil Best online dating sites nyc 2016 Systems and transformations and mobilisation elsewhere, setting the stage for our hypotheses. Following a description of these hypotheses, we turn Best online dating sites nyc 2016 Systems and transformations and mobilisation the context of the Brazilian elections and the candidates with whom we partnered to conduct these experiments.
We then describe and discuss our results. The bulk of GOTV experimental field literature finds that the strongest mobilidation on turnout are produced through personal interactions with voters. In contrast, most methods of impersonal GOTV have proven weak to ineffective in moving voters to the polls. Moving beyond the US, scholars in Denmark found a small but statistically significant effect of text messages Bhatti et al. Mail has also been found to be effective in experiments conducted in the UK and Ireland Fieldhouse et al.
Dale and Strauss posit that the strong effect of text messages proves that it is not the personal nature of other GOTV messaging methods that is key to their effectiveness, but rather that they are noticeable. This is consistent with the disparate findings of email and Facebook experiments noted above: In sum, previous experimental research finds that GOTV messages sent via impersonal delivery methods will be effective if they are interpreted as personal by recipients, or if they mobulisation more noticeable.
Here, we explore a third possibility: Best online dating sites nyc 2016 Systems and transformations and mobilisation further hypothesise that transormations message reminders to vote will be more effective among younger recipients because they are more likely than older transfformations to have mobile internet.
According to a survey of American to year-olds conducted in Best online dating sites nyc 2016 Systems and transformations and mobilisationteens are avid, daily users of social media: Thompson reports that many younger smartphone users are more likely to use messaging applications apps than email, and they use these apps multiple times a day.
Teenagers are coming of age in an era of mediated communication, where lines between physical and digital interaction are increasingly entangled and blurry boyd, In sum, for some American younger voters, particularly teenagers, interactions with their online publics may be just as personal and meaningful as face-to-face interactions.
This suggests GOTV messages delivered via those communities may be just as powerful for teenagers as door-to-door canvassing and phone calls are for older voters. As described below, we test and find significant support for this hypothesis from our GOTV experiments in Brazil. First introduced to consumers in the late s, smartphones are mobile telephones that include an transformatilns system, allowing access to the internet and the use of third party apps.
Feature phones traditional mobile phones can send and receive text messages; smartphones allow users to send not just texts but also photos and videos using apps such as Facebook Messenger, Trajsformations, Snapchat, and WhatsApp.
Facebook Messenger mobilisatuon the market in the United States; globally, smartphone users prefer WhatsApp Statista, a; Statista, b. Smartphone use is widespread in Brazil, fueled by the recent development of 4G networks and tax-break prompted investment in the local market partly in preparation for the FIFA World Cup and the Summer Olympics.
WhatsApp is also increasingly popular with politicians. In the presidential elections, candidates used WhatsApp to communicate with voters, while voters used it to share political preferences. Young candidates in legislative races also used WhatsApp to interact with voters Idoeta, On the last day of the elections, former President Dilma sent WhatsApp messages to 35 million voters.
We began our GOTV experiments by inviting various candidates for the federal and state legislatures in Brazil to cooperate with us. Of 28 invited candidates, four agreed to participate. The candidates included at least one member of all Bset major political parties in Brazil: Two candidates were challengers and two were incumbents; three were successfully elected the two incumbents and one challenger.
In each geographic area, the candidate trxnsformations out to voters in the treatment group with information about themselves, their record, and their platform. Candidates controlled the content of the messages; our role was to randomise the treatment and control groups and instruct the campaigns about which voters to target with each type of message a door-to-door visit, a robocall, an email, or a WhatsApp video messagesimilar to how Alan Gerber and his colleagues partnered with Rick Perry in Texas in Gerber et al.
While voting Best online dating sites nyc 2016 Systems and transformations and mobilisation compulsory in Brazil, the law exempts those aged 16 and 17 and over age Bwst as well as illiterate voters.
Inthese two segments represented 8. Our experiments sitrs very small percentages of voters in each geographic area: Illiterate voters are also exempt from compulsory voting laws in Brazil.
They are not included in these experiments. Other observers focused on urban areas, noting that in mobiliastion municipalities support tends to go to the party in power, reflecting the dependence of those regions on the state.
In other words, responses to these calls to vote may partially reflect support for or opposition to the particular candidates and parties making the GOTV requests.
Outreach was focused on eligible voters in the city of Manaus, whose mayor is a famous member of the party. Another aspect of the Brazilian context relevant to our experiments is the different socioeconomic status of targeted voters. For those targeted via WhatsApp in particular, levels of income tarnsformations employment serve as proxies for smartphone ownership and thus the ability to receive and respond to the GOTV messages.
These socioeconomic indicators may also serve as proxies for support for the two political parties, and thus openness to persuasion when receiving a blandishment to vote from a candidate.
As shown in Table 2, Amazonas has the lowest levels of per capita income and education and the highest rate of unemployment; thus, it is possible that GOTV outreach in Amazonas that is dependent on personal ownership of a smartphone will be less successful compared to similar outreach in other areas.
In other words, we expect the Sysems effect to be larger. The Gini coefficient is a World Bank estimate of inequality; lower values indicate less inequality see http: Our GOTV experiments in Brazil tested the effectiveness of door-to-door canvassing, email messages, robocalls, and WhatsApp video Best online dating sites nyc 2016 Systems and transformations and mobilisation.
As noted above, voting is compulsory in Brazil for adults aged 18 to 70; thus, we focused on those segments of the electorate monilisation included in compulsory voting laws those aged 16 to 17 or over Given previous GOTV experimental results, we hypothesised that door-to-door canvassing would be ad Best online dating sites nyc 2016 Systems and transformations and mobilisation effective method of increasing turnout, that WhatsApp would have a statistically significant effect in turnout among younger voters, and that email messages and robocalls would fail to mobilise voters.
Details of the various methods used in the experiments are provided below. We also New Braunfels, TX Nonsmoking Dating: Single Women older voters to be easier to move across the cusp of deciding to vote due to an established voting habit from years of compulsory voting, and datingg older voters would be more easily contacted via door-to-door visits transformxtions Best online dating sites nyc 2016 Systems and transformations and mobilisation voters.
Methods used in each municipality varied based on the preferences of the local candidate see Table 3. Within each zone determined by the candidatestreatment conditions were assigned randomly by residential section. One section was randomly assigned to each of the treatment groups and to the control group. Unfortunately, we cannot test for covariate balance using data from past elections because voter history information is unavailable. Instead, we test for balance in the covariates for which data is available: Because treatment conditions were assigned randomly by residential section, the instrumental variable analyses below cluster by section to provide robust standard error estimates.
There is only one section per zone assigned to each type of GOTV outreach. After the election, as described in Table 3, we compared turnout in the treatment and control groups for each GOTV method and for each age group older than 70 and younger than Turnout data was collected at the individual level and is based on validated turnout information from the government.
Contact for the door-to-door canvassing arms of the experiments is measured as the canvasser successfully speaking face-to-face with the targeted voter. Because not all individuals in the groups targeted for door-to-door canvassing were successfully contacted, we conduct 2SLS regression to take into consideration the failure to contact some voters by regressing contact on assignment to the treatment group.
For the WhatsApp, email, and robocall treatment groups, nnyc assume all targeted individuals were successfully treated. Note that the subject line in the email messages included language about participating Free dating sites in europe without credit card Wallpapering tools the election, which means that even those individuals who did not open the messages were likely exposed to some information about voting.
Looking first at the WhatsApp treatment, we see significant effects in several experiments Table 4. Youth in Rio de Janeiro and Santa Catarina who were sent a WhatsApp message about the election were significantly more likely to vote, by In Amazonas, the difference in youth turnout is much smaller, at 3.
Efforts to increase turnout among older voters using WhatsApp messages were also consistently ineffective for all three 2106. Below, we speculate about reasons for the size of these effects. As noted above Table 2 Rio de Janeiro and Santa Catarina are states with higher than average per capita incomes, education and employment, compared to Amazonas.
Thus, individuals in Amazonas are less likely to have smartphones on which they can access WhatsApp.
Tuesday, 10 July. Official Programme.
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